Un análisis geográfico para prevenir el conflicto: Moldavia, foco de tensión geopolítica
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El espacio exsoviético representa un área de influencia disputada y donde se desarrollan estrategias de desestabilización propias de la zona gris. El análisis de la distribución de etnias, lengua, indicadores económicos y geografía electoral puede servir como herramienta para identificar aquellas regiones netamente diferenciadas del resto y que puedan socavar su estatalidad. Moldavia constituye un buen ejemplo debido a la persistencia de un conflicto congelado (Transnistria), una región autónoma (Gagauzia) y una polarización política entre el proeuropeísmo y la alianza con Rusia. Los datos provienen de fuentes primarias locales y oficiales, a los que ha seguido un análisis estadístico y cartográfico. Se completa con información actual y contextualizada respecto de las elecciones de 2020. Como conclusiones se desprende que el país se encuentra fracturado entre el norte y el centro, y un sur con amplia presencia de minorías étnicas bien circunscritas. Por ello, es necesario invertir en las regiones en declive prolongado y asegurar la convivencia pacífica en un Estado multicultural como método para la prevención de conflicto, frente a un escenario de potencial fragmentación territorial. El análisis interdisciplinar es extrapolable a otros países de la zona gris y constituye una herramienta de ayuda para afianzar la credibilidad europea.
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