Impact of global warming on the distribution and survival of the Spanish fir (Serranía de Ronda, Southern Spain)
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Abstract
After of retreat of the Quaternary glaciers, the firs retreated towards the north or ascended towards the mountains. The Spanish fir (Abies pinsapo. Boiss) is a relict and endemic fir species of the Serranía de Ronda (western part of the Baetic Mountain Range, Southern Spain), and one of the most southern relics of the temperate-boreal conifer forests. In this paper, we projected the effects of global warming on the potential distribution of the Spanish fir based on the IPCC (AR5) emission scenarios using an ensemble forecasting approach of ecological niche models. Our models estimated a strong reduction of the potential distribution of the Spanish fir in the study area, including the habitat suitability loss in the worst-case scenario.
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