The demographic impact of COVID-19 during 2020 and its regional differences. How will the pandemic affect Spain’s future population?

Abstract

Several studies have documented the effect of COVID-19 on mortality and fertility, but less attention has been paid to its impact on migration. The aim of this article is to analyse the consequences of the pandemic on births, deaths and migration during 2020 in Spain and in the Autonomous Communities (NUTS 2 regions) of Madrid, Catalonia, Balearic Islands, Castile and León, Asturias and Andalusia, comparing the recorded data with a population projection in the absence of the pandemic. A projection to 2031 is subsequently produced to assess the impact on these components at national level, the Spanish population and its structure over the next decade under three scenarios. Our results show that in 2020 there was an excess mortality of 16.2%, with important variations at the regional level. Fertility declined overall by 6.5%, with minor regional variation. However, the most affected component was immigration, with a decrease of 35.9%, while emigration declined overall by 23.8%. The fall in immigration had a great impact on the chief receiving regions, where it led to a significant reduction in population change, despite being still positive. The reduction of immigration and excess mortality increased population loss in declining regions, which was not compensated by a shift from negative to positive values in net internal migration. Concerning the projection to 2031 at the national level, if international migration and fertility were to recover by 2022 the expected values in the absence of the pandemic, the size and structure of the population would be unaffected in the medium term. However, if the recovery takes longer, the age structure will be significantly affected, which would have a great impact in regions already experiencing population decline.